Everyone wants good value don’t they? Value betting is the answer to this dilemma. Read on for the best value betting lesson
When you buy something for your house or when you place a bet, it is always important to get value for the money that you are spending. In fact, the only really sure way to make long term profits through online sports betting is to make sure that you get value in your bets. This is the best way for anyone to beat the bookies
Value is the key to making good profits in the long term and should never be ignored.
That is why we created the Bet Majestic Value Calculator – (scroll down for more information.)
What is value betting?
Value is when you are able to get something for less than it is actually worth. Imagine that you are an expert in antiques and you find a picture that is on sale for £500.00.
However, you know that you would be able to resell the picture for £750.00.
This means that there is clearly value in the picture, because you could sell it for more than you paid for it and make a good profit.
The fact that you have experience and knowledge about the likely prices is the key here. Your knowledge is what allows you to determine whether value exists.
If you did not know what you could sell the picture for, it would not be a wise purchase, because you would be taking a risk without any proper knowledge. This would not be a value buy.
How does value betting work?
The same principles apply to getting the odds in sports betting. The true value of a sporting event is expressed by the probability of the outcome actually occurring.
This means that the odds offered by the bookmakers are related to the probability of an event happening (plus a mark up to help ensure profit for the bookmaker).
Therefore, if you can get odds higher than the odds indicated by the probability (the ‘correct’ odds), then you have found a good value bet.
How to calculate the value in a bet
The simplest bet is flipping a coin. There are 2 possible outcomes – heads or tails and the chances of each out come are the same – 50%. Matters like form, home or away fixtures or whether a key player is missing do not affect the result. It is always 50% chance of either outcome.
First of all, you calculate the correct odds by dividing 100 by the chance of the outcome.
In the coin-flipping example, the chances of heads are 50%.
Therefore, 100/50 = 2. The correct odds are 2.00. If you are able to get odds higher than 2, you are getting good value. If you get odds less than 2, you do not have good value.
Suppose that you are able to get odds of 2.20 on heads. That would imply a chance of the event happening of 45% (100/2.2=45).
We know that the actual likelihood is 50%, so you are able to buy the odds at a value of 5%. It is like when we bought the painting knowing that it was worth more than the asking price.
Does the bet have value?
In order to know whether a bet has value, then we need to know how to calculate the probability and value.
It is simple. The probability is 100 divided by the odds offered. So if the odds offered are 3.0, the calculation is 100 / 3 = 33.3% probability of the event happening according to the bookmaker.
If you estimate that the true chance of the result happening is greater than 33.3%, then you have found good value.
The formula for calculating value is:
Odds offered by bookmaker x your predicted percentage chance / 100.
If the result is greater then 1.0, then you have found value.
Suppose that you thought the chances of the result in the example above were 40%, the calculation is as follows:
3.0 x 40 / 100 = 1.2
As the answer is greater than 1, we have managed to find value and this represents a good bet for many online punters. Others will have a different attitude to risk, and will want to look for even greater value to reduce the risk of losing.
There are many variables in searching for value, but this shows that value is linked to probability and does not mean that simply betting on high odds is the way to make money betting. Sometimes odds of 1.5 can represent good value and odds of 10 may represent bad value, even though they would produce a great return if it actually won.
Punters need to perfect their analysis of bets by being as accurate as they can in relation to their predictions.
These will be affected by a variety of issues like form, injuries, location of the match or race etc.
As well as using your own knowledge and experience, make use of prediction sites like Statarea and FC Stats for football. The community of users on OLBG offer excellent prediction statistics for many other sports.
Final words about Value Betting
Please don’t think that if one of your value bet selections loses, the bet did not have value. A punter has to know that not all bets can be winning bets and the key factor is to regularly choose good value in your picks. This will mean that, over time, assuming that your prediction of results is reasonable, you will make more from your online betting.