Successful football betting systems can be the key to finding a long term, sustainable way to beat the bookie regularly.
Football is the most popular sport in the world, with millions of people watching the biggest games around the globe on television. Furthermore, thanks to live streaming on the internet, such as those offered by online bookmakers, it’s possible to watch matches from various leagues, wherever you live. So, if you want to watch Barcelona vs Real Madrid in La Liga or Bangkok United vs Buriram United in the Thailand league, you can. In fact, thanks to the live streaming services of online bookmakers, new and exciting ways to bet have been introduced and we will be covering those later.
A Brief History
Betting on football is a massive industry and whether you are watching a match live at the stadium or on television, you will see advertisements from betting companies. We can trace the history of football betting back to 1923 and this was when the football pools were first introduced.
Since then, betting and football have grown together into the multi-million-pound industry we see today. Football betting systems have developed as betting shops were built and people could walk in and place bets on the outcome of football matches. This developed further and punters could even bet on specific events within games.
The most significant change came when online betting was introduced and it became possible to bet on almost every professional football match taking place in the world, whatever your location. This led to an increase in online football tipping websites and the emergence of football betting strategies and football betting systems.
Popular Events on Which to Bet
The most popular online bookmakers have a huge choice of football matches on which to bet, at all times of the day. If your domestic league is not in action, someone else’s will be and you can go online and bet on the matches. However, some football leagues and tournaments offer a greater choice of markets and these include:
English Premier League
Often referred to as the most competitive league in the world, the Premier League in England boasts some of the most successful and famous teams. Manchester United, Chelsea, Manchester City and Tottenham to name but a few. There were many examples of punters beating the bookies with the unexpected success of Leicester City in 2016.
The Championship is considered to be one of the most difficult leagues to get out of anywhere. The huge amounts of money that can be made by teams in the Premier League may make the league below seem like small fry, but this is not true. Huge teams like Leeds United, Aston Villa, Newcastle United and West Ham have all played in the Championship in recent years. It is a very exciting league to watch. It is so competitive that teams at the top often lose to teams at the bottom and this leads to some excellent trading opportunities. It is often said that the play off match at the end of the season is the most valuable match in the world.
Spanish La Liga
Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid all grace the Spanish La Liga, surely making it the most glamorous league in the world? Most of the greatest superstars in world football have played in La Liga at some stage, including Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, David Beckham, Diego Maradona, Zinedane Zidane and Johan Cruyff.
Italian Serie A
Serie A also boasts some great teams, including Juventus, Roma, AC Milan and Inter Milan. Happily, the league has cleaned itself up and moved on from the football betting system scandals of the 2000s.
The Bundesliga has a proud history and tradition of great teams, including obviously Bayern Munich as well as Dortmund, Hamburg and FC Koln. The longstanding success of the German National team has been founded on the success of the Bundesliga over at least 50 years.
French Ligue 1
Not as big as some of the other European Leagues, Ligue 1 has seen an influx of money over recent years and Paris St Germain are considered as one of the richest teams in the world. The league also includes successful teams like Monaco, Lyon and Bordeaux and has provided many great betting opportunities over recent years.
UEFA Champions League
The Champions League is the ultimate club competition, certainly for European teams. Clubs are desperate to qualify for it through their own domestic leagues as winning it is a path to glory for any player. The competition is in a league format during the Autumn, with 16 teams qualifying for the knock out phase beginning after the New Year. The knock out matches before the final are played on a 2 leg, home and away basis. The final is a one off match played in a neutral venue. Huge amounts of money are bet on Champions League matches, meaning that there is always high liquidity with great football betting and trading opportunities.
FIFA World Cup
This is the ultimate prize for any footballer. All of the worlds nations compete to qualify for the World Cup. It is held every 4 years and is the pinnacle of the football cycle. The betting opportunities in the World Cup are almost endless and present online punters with lots of chances to beat the bookies if the right football betting systems are employed. The original World Cup Trophy is the Jules Rimet trophy. It is held permanently by Brazil after their third triumph in 1970. The rules have now been changed, so that the winning team has to hand the trophy back to FIFA after their reign comes to an end.
You are not limited to these leagues and tournaments and there are hundreds to choose from but if you want the best coverage in terms of betting markets and information, you cannot go wrong with them.
Using the services of experienced football tipsters, with a good track record of success is probably the simplest way of beating the bookies. By using a reputable tipsters service with strong football betting systems, you reduce the chance of making rookie errors yourself. The tips cannot always win, but they will provide value and increase your chances of a result.
We recommend the following tipster services:
Pro Footy Tips – A success rate of 29% is good in this field and they have produced a return on investment on 27% since March 2016. This is very healthy indeed. Click here for more information and detail about the service
The Main Football Betting Markets
As mentioned above, the matches from the most popular leagues and tournaments will often have a wide choice of markets to choose from, well over 100 in some cases. However, some markets remain the most popular and if you are just starting on your football betting adventure, these are a good place to begin. Most football betting systems will revolve around these markets.
A very simple one to start, match betting involves placing a bet on the outcome of the match. You can bet on the home team, the away team or the draw, so there are three outcomes to choose from for every match.
Both Teams to Score
Again, this is very straightforward and all you must decide is if you believe both teams will score at least one goal in the match. The choices are yes or no.
Result and Both Teams to Score
This is an extension of the betting markets above. You must first select who you think will win the match or whether it will be a draw. You must then decide if both teams will score. For example, you could bet Liverpool to win and yes for both teams to score.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
How many goals do you think will be scored in total come the end of the match? If you think there will be 3 or more, you can bet on over 2.5 goals or if you think it will be a low scoring game, you can bet under 2.5 goals. There are additional values included on this market, such as 1.5, 3.5 and 4.5 goals.
Using this football betting market, you can bet on the player you think will score the first goal of the match. This is one of the markets that really is more of a gamble and free football betting systems make use of the first goalscorer opportunity.
If you think it is too risky to bet on a player to score the first goal, you bet on a player to score any time during the match using this market.
Another popular form of football betting is handicap betting. This is when the bookmaker will give the team who are favourites to win a match a handicap to overcome. This makes games more interesting from a betting point of view, when there is one team who are significantly stronger than the other.
As mentioned above, live in-play betting has become very popular and it is possible to follow matches lives on bookmaker’s websites from all over the world. Using this, it is possible to lock in a profit or manage a loss and the best football trading strategies will help you when doing both.
For example, if you have backed Liverpool to win their match and they are 1-0 up with 5 minutes left to play, you have an agonising wait, to see if they can hang on. However, when trading you have the option to accept a smaller profit and close the bet, so regardless of how the match ends, you will win money.
Lay the Draw
The Lay the Draw trading strategy involves a LAY BET on the draw for a football match before the match begins and then a BACK BET on the draw at higher odds to achieve a guaranteed profit, no matter the outcome of the event.
You will need an account at one of the online trading firms like Betfair or Betdaq for this, one of the most popular football betting systems.
Look for matches where the probability of a draw between the teams is lower than average and there is a reasonable probability that at least one goal will be scored.
As an example, take the match between Sunderland (the slight home favourites) against Aston Villa in 2016.
The LAY BET was placed at 3.15 for the draw before the match started.
We placed a lay bet of £100 on the draw at 3.15 before the match began. The match kicked off and after about 15 minutes of play, Aston Villa had scored and the draw result was immediately on the rise which was the backed up by a second goal after about 20 minutes!
The draw odds had completely changed and Aston Villa were now the favourites and the probabilities (based on betting markets) were that the match would not end in a draw.
The draw odds moved high enough that we were able to take a BACK BET and cash out of the LAY BET which meant that we had guaranteed a profit of nearly £40 on this football match and it wasn’t even half time! The final score on this match was 0:4 to Aston Villa but after the first two goals went in, we didn’t need to worry about the final score. We had already “greened up”.
Using a betting exchange, such as Betfair, opens a range of football trading opportunities and as we have shown above, one of the most popular is lay the draw. To use this football trading strategy, you basically need to lay the draw on a betting exchange and wait for the match favourites to score a goal. Once they score, the betting companies will assume they will go on to win the match and raise the price of the draw. You can then trade out and make a profit.
Liverpool are playing Manchester City and this is a game which could have a lot of goals. The odds for the match to end level are 3.95 and we lay £10 on this at the betting exchange, giving us a liability of £29.50, if the match does not end in a draw. The match starts and Liverpool score a goal after 5 minutes. Immediately, the odds for the draw have moved out to 5.9 and at this stage we can cash out and lock in a profit of £3.28. The key is to use matches involving high scoring teams but if a match reached 0-0 after 70 minutes and there has not been much in the way of attacking, it is a good idea to cash out your bet and take a loss. Occasionally this will happen but if you stick to using the right matches, you will make money in the long term using lay the draw.
Football Betting Systems
To have any real chance of beating the bookies in the long term, you need to have a solid football betting system in place. Many football betting systems are simply a case of analysing the information available regarding the two teams and using it to your advantage.
Over 0.5 and Over 1.5 Goals
It’s very easy to find the past results of two football teams and see how many goals they have been scoring and conceding. Look back at the previous ten matches. If Both teams have conceded at least 1 goal in each of these games, you can get on the over 0.5 market. If one team has been scoring a lot of goals in their last five matches, averaging at 2 per game, get on the over 1.5 goals market. In most cases, you will win small profits but in the long term, these add up and that’s the basis of a good football betting system. The low return and low odds available may be off putting to some online punters.
Value Football Betting System
A value football betting system will take more time to use but can result in a good profit. You can use this when match betting, which is betting on a home win, away win or draw. When using a value football betting system, you want to find good value in the odds the bookmaker is offering. To do this, you will need to use statistics but don’t worry, these are freely available online as mentioned above.
For example, Stoke are playing Arsenal at home in the Premier League and the bookies have Stoke at 5.0, the draw at 4.0 and Arsenal at 1.66.
Based on these odds, the bookies believe Stoke have a 20% chance of winning, there is a 25% of a draw and Arsenal have a 60% chance of winning. You can work this out by doing the sum of the odds, adding 1 and multiplying by 100. Do not worry when the percentages does not add up to 100, this is how the bookies make money.
With the percentages worked out, you can go to any free football statistics website where they offer detailed comparisons between football teams and see what percentage chance they give both teams in the match. A good website for this is Statarea.
Let’s say they give Stoke a 40% chance of winning the match, you can see the odds should be shorter than the bookies are offering and therefore, they are undervaluing Stoke’s chances of winning the match. This is known as a value bet and although a value football betting system such as this can take a little time, the high profit wins make it worthwhile. As many of the wins using this football betting system are high, you must be prepared to make more losses than you would when using a system such as the over 0.5 and over 1.5 system discussed above.
Find out more about value betting systems on [our page here]
There are specialist’s who are able to help you locate great value bets too. We have seen great success and feedback from the team at Goal Profits and recommend their statistics based systems.
Set & Forget: The Over 2.5 Goal Market Betting Strategy
This strategy requires you to look for the big, liquid markets where goals are scored regularly. The Premier Leagues of Austria, Holland, Brazil, Japan, Slovakia, Greece, Chile and Mexico are known for their big scoring matches and lack of clean sheets. Search these carefully and find teams that score regularly.
Always remember rule number 1: the difference between the top teams and also-rans in the Premier Leagues of England, Germany, Italy & Spain is the capability of the tops teams to maintain goal difference – possession and defence wins matches and leads to titles!
That said, the Italian teams averaged 3.2 goals per match, the German’s 2.75 goals per match, the Spanish 2.65 goals per match & the English (and Welsh) 2.56 goals per match – opportunities abound!
Part one – Start with the Over/Under 1.5 Goal Market
Look for matches where the Over 1.5 (+1.5) Goal Market is paying somewhere between 1.20 and 1.65. Remove those matches that are outside this range.
Once you have shortlisted your starting candidates, look at the past 3 games for the favourite team. If the favourite scored more than 1 goal per games in the past 3 games (a total of 3 goals or more), this match gets shortlisted.
If the favourite did not score a total of 3goals; remove this match from the shortlist.
Part two – Review the Over/Under 2.5 Goal Market
Look for matches where the Over 2.5 (+2.5) Goal Market is paying above 1.50. If the match is paying less than 1.50, remove it from your shortlist.
If the Over 2.5 (+2.5) Market is paying 1.50 plus – place your bet! If not move on.
Trading: The Under 2.5 Goal Market Betting Strateg
This is a good trading system that involves trading the Over/Under 2.5 Goal Markets on matches where there is a low probability of goals being scored.
Firstly, review the summary page of the Betfair betting exchange in the Over/Under 2.5 Goal Markets and look for matches where the Under 2.5 Goals selection is around 1.90. At 1.90 the odds suggest a close match with a 53% probability that 2-goals or less will be scored.
|1.90||Under 2.5 Goals||1.92|
|2.32||Over 2.5 Goals||2.36|
Prior to the start of the match place a LAY BET on the OVER 2.5 (+2.5) Goals. The aim is to trade out of the lay bet after approximately 5 minutes as once the match commences, the prices in the OVER 2.5 (+2.5) Goals market will start drifting higher providing no goals are scored.
After approximately 5 minutes of the match, the price should drift to at least 2.44. Placing our LAY BET of £100 at odds of 2.36 pre-match (£100 x 2.36) leads to £136 liability and after approximately 5-minutes the price will drift to around 2.44 so we now want to place a BACK BET to trade out and lock in a guaranteed profit!
|1.78||Under 2.5 Goals||1.80|
|2.44||Over 2.5 Goals||2.46|
Placing our BACK BET of £100 at odds of 2.44 in-play ($100 x 2.44) leads to £144 profit which cancels out our LAY LIABILITY (£136) and leads to a guaranteed profit of £8.00 which may not seem like much, but if you constantly repeat this method throughout a game you can make some serious money online. If you could find any financial system which makes an 8% profit in 5 minutes, you would be very successful. No one trading on the FTSE or Wall Street is able to make this sort of return regularly!
Obviously, there is a serious risk here. A goal in the first 5 minutes will blow the betting strategy completely and will cause high levels of stress. This is why you need to choose your games carefully, looking for close games where few goals are expected. You want a game with 2 strong defences and off form strikers. Maybe not the most exciting match for the punters in the stadium, but the less excitement, the better for a football trader.
We recommend that you use this football trading strategy in conjunction with an online inlay too, which will assist you in placing your back bets quickly at a pre determined price. This makes sure that you get matched quickly and avoid making errors while worrying about whether a goal is going to be scored or not. In our experience, the best tool available is from Geeks Toy. It has a very fast, easy to use, responsive interface. It works on multiple markets and is available on a free trial to see if you like it (which we are sure you will)!
The LAY the Nil All (0:0) Draw Strategy
This is well known football betting and trading system that has been questioned by some commentators in recent years. However, provided that you choice of match is disciplined, it still provides good opportunities. Patience is the key. If the match is not looking like there will be any goals, you will have to trade out for a loss at some stage, probably around the 60 – 70 minute mark, otherwise you will lose your whole lay bet.
Part one -Look for Matches with a high probability of a result
The simplest way to find selections is to use the summary page of your betting account. Quickly scanning through the matches highlighted a match where there is a strong favourite (Crystal Palace 52%) but also a reasonable chance of a draw (29%).
Part two – Research recent form and team head-to-head
Looking back at recent form for these teams highlights a string of success for Crystal Palace (justifying the favourite tag) and not so much success for West Brom so this would further qualify this match for selection
Head to head, these teams have only played each other 3 times over the past 15-years but each time they have played, goals were scored further qualifying this match for selection.
The third (and final) qualifier was that in 57 matches that the favourite (Crystal Palace) had played in the past 10 years, there have only been 4 matches (7%) where the result was a 0:0 draw. Ideally, we’re looking for a ratio of less than 10%
The other factor in our favour is that West Brom were very effective at holding opposition teams to 0:0 scorelines up to half-time
Part three -Review the 0:0 Correct Score Betting Market
We know that the odds are going to be sharp for this market given the relative favouritism of the home team, recent form and head to head history but we have statistics on our side and we’re going to use them to our advantage!
We placed a £11.00 LAY BET at 8.00 for a liability of £77.00 (if the result was 0:0) and a return of just under £11.00 (ex commission). We didn’t have to wait long as West Brom scored within 2 minutes which meant that we had guaranteed a profit of nearly £11.00 on this football match. The final score on this match was 0:2 to West Brom but after the first goal went in, we didn’t need to worry about the final score!
Other Football Betting Systems
The Definitive Guide to Betting on Football, written by Kevin Pullein of the Racing Post is an excellent book, drawing on Kevin’s years of experience in football betting. He talks about what is likely to happen during various phases of a match and how you can exploit this with your betting.
The book is recommended for novices and more experienced punters too.
Another very well reviewed book is Sports Trading Betfair: Profitable Betting Exchange Systems for trading on Betfair and Betdaq.
This is written Wayne Bailey.It explains how and why odds move, with strategies for responding to (and profiting from) these odds changes.
It has had many positive reviews, including this glowing reference from Danny C,
“A must buy for all beginner traders! If you’re new to the game like me, this book will give you a great understanding of how the markets work. The book goes into great detail on many different strategies which can be used with betfair software, with plenty of good examples from Wayne. A great read at a fantastic price!”
Click here for price information
Football is the most popular sport for betting and it’s easy to see why. Games are being played throughout the world daily and the majority are covered by online bookmakers, so you will never be short of a match on which to bet. Get accustomed to the main football betting markets first and once you feel comfortable, work your way into football trading and football betting systems, using the examples above.